October 2nd, 2011 categories: Buyers Report, For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, Major Market Reports, Market Performance Updates, Sales Reports, South Lake Tahoe Statistics, South Lake Tahoe, CA
South Lake Tahoe, CA Housing: Q3 demand down by 8 home sales, values down by 16.8%.
The good news keeps coming for South Lake Tahoe, CA home buyers. We're confident this news is likely not to be thought of as good by home sellers, but South Lake Tahoe home values are a $48,000 better deal in general for home buyers today than they were at the beginning of the year.
As of Jan 1, 2011, the South Lake Tahoe median sold price was $285,000. This represented sales over the last 180-days, not including the Tahoe Keys (he median sold price for all of 2010 was $299.000, not including the Keys).
On April 1st , or at the end of Q1, that same number was $281,250, which was based on the same criteria and only represented a slight change at the end of the first quarter (1.3% off).
On July 1st, or the end of Q2, that same number was $270,250, again based on the exact same criteria, which was a decline of $11,050 off the median sold price in the second quarter (3.9%).
As of October 1st, or the end of Q3, something rather dramatic has happened with the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price. It is now $237,000, a rather precipitous drop in the last 90 days of $33,200, or 12.2% off what the median sold price was 3 months ago.
Since the beginning of the year, what this means is the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price has declined from $285,000 to $237,000. This is $48,000 lower, or a decline of 16.8% in general home values, all of which is based on all South Lake Tahoe, CA residential home sales in the last 180-days.
If we were to include home sales in the Tahoe Keys, the median sold price has changed from $310,000 on the first of January to $260,000, which is what it is as of October first. This is a decline of $50,000, or 16.1%. At present the Tahoe Keys skews the South Lake Tahoe median sold price 15.2% higher. This is about 3-4 times what it is historically, were the Tahoe Keys normally adds some 2% ? 5% to the median sold price.
Half of all South Lake Tahoe, CA home buyers are purchasing a distressed property, either a bank owned property or a short sale. More than half of all buyers are buying houses that are priced under $300,000 (55.8%). Rather than being influenced by demand, these two factors more than anything else evident are responsible for South Lake Tahoe home value decline.
Housing demand continues at essentially the same pace as that of 2010, where South Lake Tahoe saw more homes sold than in any year since 2005. As of September 30, the end of Q3, there are eight fewer single family home sales this year than there were last year at the same time.
The details and source charts follow.
?Housing Demand :
South Lake Tahoe housing demand is only a scant less than it was a year ago (8 sales less to be exact).
Q1 2011 total single family homes sold: 116
Q1 homes sold last year: 104
Q2 2011 total single family homes sold: 122
Q2 homes sold last year: 138
Q3 2011 total single family homes sold: 138
Q3 homes sold last year: 142
2010 total number single family homes sold: 507
Total number homes sold in last 365-days: 494
?Housing Values :
South Lake Tahoe housing values are best tracked via the median sold price. Because one singularly unique high-end South Lake Tahoe neighborhood has a significant effect on the overall median sold price, we will look at sales results that do and do not include The Tahoe Keys.
In summary, there is continued price decline in South Lake Tahoe home values.
Q1 2011 median sold price (Tahoe Keys not included): $281,250.
Q1 median sold price last year (Tahoe Keys not included): $314,833
Q1 2011 median sold price (Tahoe Keys included): $290,500.
Q1 median sold price last year (Tahoe Keys included): $327,583
Q2 2011 median sold price (Tahoe Keys not included): $266,500.
Q2 median sold price last year (Tahoe Keys not included): $297,500
Q2 2011 median sold price (Tahoe Keys included): $294,833.
Q2 median sold price last year (Tahoe Keys included): $330,333.
Q3 2011 median sold price (Tahoe Keys not included): $233,250.
Q3 median sold price last year (Tahoe Keys not included): $277,833
Q3 2011 median sold price (Tahoe Keys included): $275,000.
Q3 median sold price last year (Tahoe Keys included): $316,667.
2011 median sold price to date:
with Tahoe Keys: $250,000.
without Tahoe Keys: $281,750.
2010 median sold price:
with Tahoe Keys: $319,000.
without Tahoe Keys: $299,000.
?Distressed Sales :
The sales of distressed properties continues to affect South Lake Tahoe, CA home values. The decline the market is experiencing includes the sales of bank owned homes and short sales, the incidence of which seems to be holding around 50% of all sales. As stated above, about half of all South Lake Tahoe, CA home buyers are purchasing a distressed property (50.8%).
Q1 2011 distressed sales: 47.4%
Q1 distressed sales last year: 58.3%
Q2 2011 distressed sales: 58.6%
Q2 distressed sales last year: 45.3%
Q3 2011 distressed sales: 47.2%
Q3 distressed sales last year: 38.6%
Total 2011 distressed sales: 50.8%
Total distressed sales last year: 46.4%
The Bottom Line:
To date, there is a 4.4% increase in distressed property sales in South Lake Tahoe, CA this year over last year.
?What most people are buying :
Preferences home buyers have for a price range also effects home values, which makes sense. If more buyers are buying in a particular price range than anywhere else, that certainly favors the median sold price toward that price range. Let's examine:
As cited above, the current South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price is $270,400.
Q1 2011 single family home sales under $300,000: 53.5%
Q1 sales under $300,000 last year: 42.9%
Q2 2011 single family home sales under $300,000: 54.2%
Q2 sales under $300,000 last year: 44.1%
Q3 2011 single family home sales under $300,000: 58.5%
Q3 sales under $300,000 last year: 45%
Total 2011 South Lake Tahoe, CA sales under $300,000: 55.8%
Total sales under $300,000 last year: 39.8%
The Bottom Line:
There is a 16% increase in the number of homes sold under $300,000 this year compared to last year. We find interesting coincidence that this 16% increase in the purchase of homes under $300,000 is rather the same as the overall percent decline in 2011 median home values to date.
?Characteristics of the median sold house : (from now back to then)
As cited above, the South Lake Tahoe median sold price is $250,000. This falls at the highest point of one price range, and the lowest point in another. Looking at? both price ranges, the key characteristics are different today than they were last year, and much different then they were years ago. In summary here are the differences in the $200,000 to $250,000 South Lake Tahoe house and the $250,000 to $300,000 house since the market high in 2006.
The $250,00 ? $299,999 South Lake Tahoe house
- Houses in this price range are 17 years newer than they were 5 years ago.
- They are 54% cheaper in price per square foot.
- Three times as many of them have sold in so far this year than in all of 2006.
The $200,00 ? $249,999 South Lake Tahoe house
- Houses in this price range are 19 years newer than they were 5 years ago.
- They are 57% cheaper in price per square foot.
Fourteen times as many of them have sold so far this year than in all of 2006.
The Bottom Line:
Today's South Lake Tahoe house is a better deal for home buyers than they use to be in every conceivable way.
Sources for this report:
The chart below indicates Q1 ? Q2 2011 South Lake Tahoe, CA real estate sales activity (full size chart here).
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The chart below indicates all 2010 South Lake Tahoe, CA home sales activity. (full size chart here)
Previous Lake Tahoe Real Estate Blog posts of interest:
Jul 6, 2011: Q2 2011 South Lake Tahoe, CA Real Estate Report
Apr 2, 2011: Q1 2011 South Lake Tahoe, CA Real Estate Report
Jan 2, 2011: 2010 South Lake Tahoe Housing Demand Report
Nov 16, 2010: What People are Buying: South Lake Tahoe 2010 Home Sales per Month
Nov 15, 2010: South Lake Tahoe 2010 Home Sales: Where We Are Now
Oct 9, 2010: Analysis of 2010 South Lake Tahoe, CA homes for sale
Oct 2, 2010: On Target with South Lake Tahoe, CA Homes for sale
August 31, 2010: US Home Prices Up? what about South Lake Tahoe?
August 27, 2010: I Woke Up this Morning? to the South Lake Tahoe Blues.
July 1, 2010: South Lake Tahoe Foreclosures: No Change Yet.
May 15, 2010: Where is the New Foreclosures Deluge?
November 15, 2009: Foreclosure Filings Down in October, what does it mean?
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